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Jobs and Skills Australia has commissioned Victoria University to produce employment projections to 2033, using their Victoria University Employment Forecasting Model. Data are available by industry, occupation and skill level.
Employment projections are important to understand how the current expected economic and labour market outlook is impacting Australia’s future workforce needs. Jobs and Skills Australia has worked with Victoria University to produce employment projections to 2033. Victoria University’s Employment Forecasting Model is underpinned by a computable general equilibrium model. For more information on Victoria University's Employment Forecasting Model please read the Centre of Policy Studies working paper Victoria University Employment Forecasts: 2017 edition.
The projections have been calibrated to the macroeconomic and labour market outlook provided by the Australian Treasury. The projections are presented over a 5-year period to highlight the shorter-term trends, and over a 10-year horizon to show the impact of longer-term or structural trends.
National employment projections
Over the five years from May 2023 to May 2028, Victoria University employment projections anticipate national employment will increase by 910,400 people (or 6.5%). Over the ten years from May 2023 to May 2033, national employment is projected to increase by 1,973,900 people (or 14.2%).
Projected employment growth by industry, May 2023 to May 2028, and May 2023 to May 2033
Projected employment growth by occupation, May 2023 to May 2028, and May 2023 to May 2033
Projected employment growth by skill level, May 2023 to May 2028, and May 2023 to May 2033
These projections are based off a starting point of employment estimated at May 2023 using the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Detailed Labour Force Survey and trended by Jobs and Skills Australia, which may not align with estimates of employment from other data sources. Like any forecasts, these projections are based on assumptions and are subject to an inherent degree of uncertainty. They are useful to demonstrate how current trends could be expected to play out rather than as precise predictions of the future. Caution should be exercised when using these projections.