Employment Projections - Industry outlook

Growth rates by industry allow us to examine how broad economic trends are changing the make-up of the Australian workforce.  While all industries maintain their relative rank in terms of total employment across the coming decade (from the highest to lowest shares of employment), these projections show more employment growth in industries linked to services than goods. 

• The largest industry (close to one in every six jobs in 2025), Health Care and Social Assistance, accounts for the strongest projected employment growth over the next 5 and 10 years. This growth is mostly driven by the above-average projected growth of the older population (those 65 and over), who are the main driver for increased demand for health services (Figure 2).  Similarly, employment growth in the Professional Services industry is projected to be much faster than the national average.
• However, Retail Trade, which accounted for 9.2% of total employment in May 2025, has one of the lowest projected employment growth rates over both the next 5 and 10 years. The gradual decline in the employment share of this industry reflects a variety of factors, ranging from; increases in expenditure on services relative to goods, rising housing costs and broader cost-of-living pressures.  
• Looking across industries, the services-related industries (roughly all except for the producing industries of Agriculture, forestry and fishing, Mining, Manufacturing and Construction) are projected to account for 84% of employment growth over each the next five and ten years.