Employment is projected to increase in all states and territories over the 10 years to May 2035. Differences in employment growth rates reflect population and industry factors in each of the states and territories.
The largest increase in employment is projected for Victoria (579,500 persons or an increase of 15.3%), closely followed by NSW (576,800 persons or 12.7%), Queensland (401,700 or 13.3%), and WA (227,400 or 13.6%).
Table 1: Employment is projected to increase in all states and territories over the 10 years to May 2035
| State/Territory | Baseline | 5-year outlook | 10-year outlook | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Employment ('000) May 2025 | Share of total employment | Employment ('000) May 2030 | Share of total employment | Change ('000) | Change (%) | Employment ('000) May 2035 | Share of total employment | Change ('000) | Change (%) | |
| NSW | 4,555.4 | 31.0% | 4,843.2 | 30.9% | 287.8 | 6.3% | 5,132.3 | 30.8% | 576.8 | 12.7% |
| Vic | 3,783.5 | 25.7% | 4,071.0 | 26.0% | 287.5 | 7.6% | 4,363.0 | 26.2% | 579.5 | 15.3% |
| QLD | 3,015.6 | 20.5% | 3,207.1 | 20.5% | 191.5 | 6.3% | 3,417.3 | 20.5% | 401.7 | 13.3% |
| SA | 969.3 | 6.6% | 1,013.3 | 6.5% | 44.0 | 4.5% | 1,063.0 | 6.4% | 93.7 | 9.7% |
| WA | 1,674.0 | 11.4% | 1,787.0 | 11.4% | 113.0 | 6.8% | 1,901.4 | 11.4% | 227.4 | 13.6% |
| Tas | 285.4 | 1.9% | 294.6 | 1.9% | 9.2 | 3.2% | 305.8 | 1.8% | 20.4 | 7.2 |
| NT | 144.2 | 1.0% | 149.9 | 1.0% | 5.7 | 3.9% | 157.3 | 0.9% | 13.1 | 9.1% |
| ACT | 273.6 | 1.9% | 295.8 | 1.9% | 22.3 | 8.1% | 315.5 | 1.9% | 41.9 | 15.3% |
| Australia | 14,701.0 | N/A | 15,662.0 | N/A | 961.0 | 6.5% | 16,655.5 | N/A | 1,954.5 | 13.3% |
There are common trends in industry employment across the states and territories over the 10 years to May 2035, with a few key differences that reflect state-related factors.
- Health Care and Social Assistance continues to be the largest employing industry by share of employment in 2035 in all states and territories, except for the Australian Capital Territory where Public Administration and Safety is the largest.
- Professional, Scientific and Technical Services is projected to be the second largest employing industry in New South Wales and Victoria, contributing over 10% of employment in these jurisdictions.
- Construction is projected to be the third largest employing industry in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania and second largest in Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia.
- A range of state-specific industry patterns continue through the projection period, such as relatively strong growth in mining employment in Western Australia, key business-oriented sectors in New South Wales and Victoria, public administration in the ACT, and accommodation and tourism-related employment in Queensland.
Loading chart...
Data Error
Chart failed to load. Please try to refresh this page. If the error persists, please contact the Digital team.
Note: All figures are 10-year growth rates to May 2035.
As Table 2 shows, almost all industries are expected to grow in each state and territory over the next decade. The exceptions to this are generally the industries most affected by slowing population growth – particularly when that slowing in the population groups influences underlying demand for services (for example, declining numbers of school aged children in Tasmania and reduced demand for employment in education and training).
This population outlook, taken from the 2024 Commonwealth Population Statement, also highlights the influence of population dynamics on employment trends across the economy. Much of the projected increase in Health Care and Social Assistance employment (the fastest growing sector overall) reflects population growth in older age groups, which will increase demand for health services in general, and residential aged care in particular.
Loading chart...
Data Error
Chart failed to load. Please try to refresh this page. If the error persists, please contact the Digital team.
Source: Centre for Population 2024, Population Statement: Population Projections, 2023-24 to 2034-35, the Australian Government, Canberra.