In recent years, most employment growth has been seen in jobs that typically require post-secondary qualifications. The 2025 projections suggest that this trend will continue, with more than 90% of the employment growth over the next 10 years in these occupations (skill levels 1 to 4).
Skill level 1 occupations accounted for more than a third of total employment in May 2025 and this share is projected to increase to 37.5% in the next decade. Given the relative strength in projected growth of skill level 1 occupations, a small decline is projected for occupations where VET is more commonly the primary pathway (skill levels 2 to 4).
Table 3: Employment projections by skill level
| Skill Level | Baseline | Projected employment growth (May 2025 - May 2030) | Projected employment growth (May 2025 - May 2035) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Employment ('000) May 2025 | Share of total employment | Employment ('000) May 2030 | Share of total employment | Change ('000) | Change (%) | Employment ('000) May 2035 | Share of total employment | Change ('000) | Change (%) | |
| Skill Level 1 | 5,181.1 | 35.2% | 5,755.7 | 36.7% | 574.7 | 11.1% | 6,243.1 | 37.5% | 1,062.0 | 20.5% |
| Skill Level 2 | 1,793.5 | 12.2% | 1,886.7 | 12.0% | 93.2 | 5.2% | 1,999.0 | 12.0% | 205.5 | 11.5% |
| Skill Level 3 | 2,152.2 | 14.6% | 2,231.4 | 14.2% | 79.2 | 3.7% | 2,337.1 | 14.0% | 184.8 | 8.6% |
| Skill Level 4 | 3,562.3 | 24.2% | 3,751.9 | 24.0% | 189.6 | 5.3% | 3,955.8 | 23.8% | 393.5 | 11.0% |
| Skill Level 5 | 2,011.9 | 13.7% | 2,036.2 | 123.0% | 24.3 | 1.2% | 2,120.5 | 12.7% | 108.7 | 5.4% |
| Australia | 14,701.0 | N/A | 15,662.0 | N/A | 961.0 | 6.5% | 16,655.5 | N/A | 1,954.5 | 13.3% |
Note: Skill level 1 relates to bachelor’s degree or higher qualification; Skill level 2 relates to advanced diploma or diploma; Skill level 3 relates to Certificate IV or III (including at least 2 years’ on-the-job training); Skill level 4 relates to Certificate II or III; Skill Level 5 relates to Certificate I or secondary education.